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by Hanjo Odendaal

SARB

The Quarterly Bulletin analyses domestic and international economic and financial market developments. It also contains statistical tables and notes on methodological statistical issues, and examines topics relevant at the time of publication.

We provide examples of variables that might be of importance.

Business Cycle and Labour Analysis:

This section typically examines the current state of the South African economy in the context of the business cycle. It includes analysis of economic growth, employment trends, and labor market dynamics. The report might discuss indicators such as GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and sector-specific performances, offering insights into the economy’s overall health and the labor market’s status.

  • Total Employment in the Private Sector (KBP7008): This time series code tracks the total number of individuals employed in the private sector. It’s a crucial indicator of labor market health and private sector activity, reflecting hiring trends and economic conditions.

  • Total Remuneration per Worker in the Non-agricultural Sector (KBP7013): Measures the average remuneration (wages and salaries) per worker in the non-agricultural sector. It’s an important indicator of income levels, labor cost trends, and economic well-being for a significant portion of the workforce.

  • Indicators of Real Economic Activity: Building Plans Passed (KBP7064): Tracks the number and value of building plans approved by local authorities. It serves as a leading indicator of construction activity, investment trends, and overall economic momentum.

  • Manufacturing: Percentage Utilisation of Production Capacity (KBP7078): Indicates how much of the available manufacturing capacity is being used. High utilization rates can signal strong demand and economic growth, while lower rates may indicate underutilized resources and potential economic slack.

  • Leading Indicator of South Africa (KBP7090): A composite index designed to predict the direction of the economy’s movements in the coming months. It combines various economic indicators, offering insights into future economic activity and business cycle phases.

Money and Banking:

This part of the bulletin focuses on the financial sector, including trends in money supply, banking activities, and interest rates. It examines the Central Bank’s monetary policy actions (such as changes in the repo rate), banking sector health, and developments in credit markets. This analysis helps in understanding the monetary conditions of the economy and the banking sector’s role in economic activity.

  • SARB Liabilities: Notes and Coin in Circulation (KBP1000): Indicates the amount of physical currency in circulation, reflecting monetary policy effects.
  • SARB Liabilities: Deposits by Central Government (KBP1016): Shows government deposits at the central bank, relevant for fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
  • SARB: Assets: South African Multiple Option Settlement (SAMOS) Balances (KBP1035): Reflects central bank assets, important for understanding monetary policy operations.

Public Finance:

This section delves into the government’s fiscal operations, including budgetary allocations, spending, and revenue collection. It looks at public debt levels, fiscal deficits or surpluses, and how these affect the broader economy. The analysis might also cover government investment in infrastructure, social services, and its impact on economic growth and stability.

  • Loan Debt of National Government: Total Foreign (KBP4017): Shows the government’s foreign debt, relevant for assessing fiscal sustainability.
  • Total Loan Debt of National Government (KBP4018): The government’s total debt level, crucial for evaluating fiscal health and risk.
  • Total Financing of National Government (KBP4030): Reflects how the government finances its deficit, important for understanding fiscal strategy.

Balance of Payments:

This analysis covers transactions between South Africa and the rest of the world, including trade in goods and services, financial flows, and investment. It provides insights into the country’s current account (exports and imports balance) and financial account (cross-border investments), highlighting trends in international trade and financial stability.

  • Change in Reserve Assets (KBP5020): Reflects the changes in external assets held by the central bank, which are crucial for managing the currency and monetary policy.
  • Services, Income, and Transfers - Investment Income (KBP5064): Indicates the flow of investment income across borders, affecting the current account balance.
  • Ratio of Total Foreign Debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (KBP5260): Shows the country’s foreign debt in relation to its economic size, indicating its ability to manage external liabilities.

Capital Markets:

This part examines developments in the South African capital markets, including the stock and bond markets. It might cover trends in market capitalization, equity and debt issuance, and investor sentiment. This analysis is crucial for understanding the financing environment for businesses and the government, as well as overall investor confidence in the South African economy.

  • Secondary Market: BEASSA All Bond Total Return Index (KBP2014): Tracks the performance of the South African bond market, important for investors and policy analysis.
  • Stock Exchange Transactions - Shares Traded, Volume (KBP2041 and KBP2172): Measures activity in the equity market, providing insight into investor sentiment and market liquidity.

National Accounts:

This section provides a comprehensive overview of the economy’s performance, detailing the total value of goods and services produced over a specific period. It breaks down economic activity by sector (such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services) and expenditure type (including consumption, investment, and exports). This analysis is fundamental for understanding the size and growth of the economy, its composition, and the main drivers of economic activity.

  • General Government: Taxes on Production and Imports (KBP6004): Represents government revenue from taxes, crucial for fiscal policy.

  • Final Consumption Expenditure by Households (KBP6007): Indicates household spending patterns, key for assessing domestic demand.

  • Final Consumption Expenditure by General Government (KBP6008): Measures government spending, impacting fiscal policy and economic activity.

MSPU

These variables are important as they give a detailed view of the financial health and contributions of different sectors within the economy, such as financial corporations, the government, and households.

  • Gross disposable income for different sectors (Financial Corporations KBP9012, General Government KBP9013, Households KBP9014): These figures are essential for understanding the spending power and savings potential within the economy.

  • Gross capital formation (General Government KBP9022, Non-Financial Corporations KBP9020, Households KBP9023): Reflects investment in assets that will support future production, such as infrastructure and equipment, which is a direct contribution to economic growth.

  • Net lending(+)/Net borrowing(-) (Non-Financial Corporations KBP9025, Financial Corporations KBP9026, General Government KBP9027, Households KBP9028): Indicates whether sectors are net savers or borrowers, showing their financial health and impact on the economy.

  • Gross saving (Financial Corporations KBP9016, Non-Financial Corporations KBP9015, Households KBP9018): Savings are a source of investment funds and a cushion against economic downturns.

StatsSA

P0041 - Statistics of civil cases for debt

Publication description:

This statistical release contains the results of a monthly sample survey of civil cases recorded and civil summonses for debt issued in South Africa. This information is obtained from selected magistrates offices.

Publication category:

  • Civil cases for debt, insolvencies and company liquidations

Publication frequency:

  • Published: Monthly

Publication type:

  • Statistical Release

P0141 - Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Publication description:

This release contains results of the monthly Survey of Consumer (Retail) Prices. The purpose of the survey is to collect and provide information regarding changes in the overall level of prices of all goods and services bought by the average household. This publication contains the CPI (Inflation) rates. The P0141 contains information on all urban areas and the Additional tables contains information for provinces, Primary urban areas, Secondary urban areas and Rural areas.

Publication category:

  • Prices

Publication frequency:

  • Published: Monthly

Publication type:

  • Statistical Release

P2041 - Mining: Production and sales

Publication description:

This statistical release contains detailed information regarding indices of the physical volume of mining production and the total value of mineral sales according to mining divisions and mineral groups on a monthly basis.

Publication category:

  • Mining

Publication frequency:

  • Published: Monthly

Publication type:

  • Statistical Release

P5041.1 - Selected building statistics of the private sector as reported by local government institutions

Publication description:

This statistical release contains information derived from the building statistics survey covering a sample of local government institutions involved in the approval of building plans and in the final inspection of buildings completed for the private sector.

Publication category:

  • Construction

Publication frequency:

  • Published: Monthly

Publication type:

  • Statistical Release